Historical returns, correlation data, and due diligence frameworks for art, wine, watches, and cars. What the data actually says.
"Invest in what you love" makes for great marketing. But do collectibles actually work as investments? We analyzed decades of data to separate the hype from the reality.
Let's start with the numbers. Here's how major collectible categories compare to traditional equities:
| Asset Class | Annualized Return | Period | S&P Correlation | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contemporary Art | 14.1% | 1995-2023 | 0.12 | 18% |
| Fine Wine (Liv-ex 100) | 10.2% | 2004-2023 | 0.19 | 12% |
| Rare Watches | 8.4% | 2010-2023 | 0.24 | 15% |
| Classic Cars | 9.8% | 2005-2023 | 0.21 | 22% |
| S&P 500 | 10.5% | 1995-2023 | 1.00 | 16% |
The headline: top-tier collectibles have delivered equity-like returns with lower correlation. Contemporary art leads with 14.1% annualized returns and just 0.12 correlation to the S&P 500. Fine wine offers lower volatility (12%) than any category including stocks.
These numbers come with a major caveat: survivorship bias. Indices like the Mei Moses Art Index track only works that resell at auction— the successes. They exclude the artists who fell out of favor and the works that never resold.
Studies suggest the median artwork returns significantly less than headline indices. One analysis found that while top-decile art returned 20%+, bottom-decile works lost 3% annually.
Collectibles returns are highly skewed. A small number of "lottery ticket" works drive index returns. Most individual pieces underperform. This means expertise—or access to expert curation—is crucial.
Highest returns but also highest dispersion. Blue-chip artists (Basquiat, Warhol, Richter) outperform. Emerging artists are high-risk bets.
Most liquid collectible market. Bordeaux and Burgundy dominate. Transparent pricing via Liv-ex. Lower volatility profile.
Concentrated in three brands: Rolex, Patek, AP. Steel sports models command premiums. Wearable while holding.
High storage and maintenance costs. Ferrari and Porsche lead. Requires expertise and access. Illiquid.
Platforms like Masterworks, Rally, and Vinovest have democratized collectibles access. You can now buy shares in a Basquiat for $1,000 instead of needing $2 million.
The tradeoffs: platform fees (typically 1-2% annual + 20% carry), limited control, and illiquidity until the platform sells. But for most investors, fractional ownership is the only practical way to access institutional-quality collectibles.
Family offices typically allocate 5-15% to "passion assets." For individual investors, we suggest:
Collectibles can enhance portfolio returns and reduce correlation—but only with careful selection. Focus on categories with transparent pricing (wine, watches), stick to blue-chip assets within each category, and consider fractional platforms to achieve diversification. The average piece underperforms; the goal is avoiding average pieces.
Ready to add collectibles to your portfolio? Explore our category guides and platform comparisons.